To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the death of automobile ownership are greatly exaggerated. That’s especially true when the report comes from a company that wants to rent you a car when you need one.
Seven years ago, the founder of Lyft predicted the end of personal car ownership by 2025. That’s in 18 months, and no slowdown is in sight. Still, the survey recently released by Zipcar, a car-sharing network, and conducted by Wakefield Research gives us some interesting trends to think about.
Wakefield Research asked 1,000 nationally representative U.S. adults aged 18 and older about their car ownership plans. The study intentionally oversampled enrolled college students to focus on the attitudes of the next car-buying generation.
The study found that one-third of U.S. adults (35%) would be at least somewhat likely to give up owning a personal vehicle by the end of the decade, and nearly 1 in 5 (18%) are very likely or extremely likely to do so. These potentially carless drivers are not alone: almost half of all adults (44%) already know someone getting by just fine without owning a car.
“The traditional American idea of owning a car — receiving the gift of new keys at 16, as a graduation surprise, or to drive around a city — is dead,” said Angelo Adams, head of Zipcar. “Car owners are feeling the stress of car ownership and are increasingly adopting affordable transportation options easily accessible at their fingertips. Why waste time and money on a car that sits unused and parked most of the time?”
It’s unclear what data really supports Adams’ conclusion. “Somewhat likely” is a far cry from “my car is for sale.” When the rubber meets the road, many people who might entertain the idea of going carless simply won’t.
A generational divide?
Zipcar’s study found that while nearly everyone thinks car ownership will decrease in the future, having access to a vehicle is still critical: nearly all Americans (95%) depend on a car at least sometimes, including more than 4 out of 5 (84%) who depend on one often or all the time. With moving day on the horizon, 93% of college students say the same.
And yet, a significant percentage of Gen Z (45%) and millennial (51%) respondents are more open to go car-free than Gen X (28%) and Boomers (21%). Almost half of college students (45%) say they would be at least somewhat likely to go without a vehicle by 2030, and 59% already know someone in a similar situation who travels fine without owning a car.
Well sure, we all knew kids without cars in college. In fact, when Gen X went to school, maybe one college student in 10 owned a car, and that person was everyone’s best friend. The other factor is that younger people tend to live in urban centers, where one can get by without a car easier, and where car ownership tends to be onerously expensive. By the time they hit middle-age and have a house out in the neighborhoods or the ’burbs, the picture tends to change.
Zipcar helpfully included some testimonials from their customers about the car-free life.
“Our environmentally conscious kids urged me to get rid of our family car in 2007, but I had been driving for more than 30 years, making me nervous not to own my car. Fast-forward 16 years later, and my family loves our car-free life,” said Janie Katz Christy of Boston.
Christy is Director of The Green Streets Initiative in her city, dedicated to promoting sustainable transportation. “We have saved tens of thousands of dollars from not owning a car and all the extra costs that come with it: feeding it gas, washing it, repairing it, parking it — and moving it for street cleaning,” she said. “With those savings, our family has been able to enjoy gorgeous train rides, ferries, bike rides, and occasional car drives.”
“I don’t own a car because I take public transportation everywhere, and parking is very hard to find in my neighborhood. When I need to access a car, it’s to help me get to places where I can’t take public transportation or to help me run errands,” said Tyler Gaston, Harlem resident and native New Yorker. “Imagine a New York with fewer cars? Less traffic?”
Ban the cars?
Everyone can agree that Manhattan could do with less traffic, but are people ready to declare cities as car-free zones? Zipcar seems to think people are ready. More than a third of those surveyed say cities should ban private cars in some areas. Gen Z (49%) and millennials (45%) are more likely to say cities should ban private cars in some areas than Gen X (31%) and Boomers (27%).
In comparison, some (6%) want to ban private cars from cities altogether, decreasing congestion, carbon emissions, and parking competition while enabling more enjoyable city living.
Still, Zipcar’s survey shows that people are thinking about their mobility needs and weighing costs, and that trend is likely to continue as the auto industry shifts towards electrification. With EV sales leapfrogging charging infrastructure and the average transaction price of a new vehicle pushing $50,000, it’s little wonder that everyone is wondering how they can save a buck on their ride.