In 2021, lithium production worldwide topped 540,000 metric tons. By 2030, the World Economic Forum (WEF) expects global demand to reach over three million metric tons. EV sales are also likely to blossom in this period. S&P Global Commodity Insights believes 13.8 million electric vehicles will be sold this year. However, it will reach 30 million by the end of the decade.
Speaking to CNBC, Corinne Blanchard, director of lithium and clean tech equity research at Deutsche Bank, said there will be a deficit of 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by the end of 2025. This will increase to 768,000 tonnes by the end of 2030.
“We do fundamentally believe in a shortage for the lithium industry. We forecast supply growth, of course, but demand is set to grow at a much faster pace,” added Blanchard.
Toyota’s chief scientist Gill Pratt has previously warned of this and said the problem will last for some time. Lithium mines take more than a decade to establish.