Few, if any, vehicles have ever created the sensational buzz as the debut of the Cybertruck in 2019 when it literally broke the internet as it was it revealed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who also collected more than $100 million reservations from more than 1 million potential buyers.
Almost four years later, the uniquely designed battery-electric Cybertruck — aggressively promoted by Musk — is finally inching towards production. But its ultimate impact on the U.S. market will likely be far more muted than once predicted, according to a leading automotive analyst.
Cybertruck destined to be a niche product
John Murphy, the lead analyst for Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, said during a recent appearance at a meeting of the Automotive Press Association in Detroit, said the production of the Cybertruck will give Tesla a boost. However, its ultimate impact will be limited.
“I think it will be a niche vehicle,” Murphy said when asked about the new EV pickup truck from Tesla. He predicted Tesla will receive a burst of sales at the start of production and then settle back down. But he won’t be selling huge volume, Murphy said.
Images of the oft-delayed Cybertruck are creeping out onto the internet, and Tesla fans are even predicting the Cybertruck will become the must-have vehicle for wealthy buyers.
Bank of America’s annual “Car Wars” analysis, assembled by Murphy’s team, offers a more sober analysis. “We expect Tesla to have two high-volume launches, including the next generation Model 3 (MY 2027) and more affordable Model Te (MY 2026),” the report noted. The Model Te is more commonly known as the Model 2.
Meanwhile, other manufacturers, including new manufacturers such as VinFast, Fisker, Rivian and Lucid, will continue to crowd into the expanding EV market along with Detroit automakers and European manufacturers such as BMW and Mercedes, which are eager to secure their share of the upper end of the market.
Murphy predicts Tesla continue to lead in EV sales with about 18% of the market, but it will be pressed hard by General Motors and Ford Motor Co., which are pushing ahead with electrification.
The bombshell reveal of the Tesla Cybertruck four years ago pushed Ford and General Motors to accelerate the development of their own electric trucks, which have stolen much of the Cybertruck’s thunder.
Ready by the end of September
Tesla now expects to roll out the long-awaited Cybertruck by the “the third quarter,” according to Musk, who is coming under pressure from pension funds and other major investors to pay closer attention to the electric vehicle business rather than Twitter or Space X.
While Tesla pocketed the money from the $100 reservations, the delivery of the first Cybertruck has continually moved backwards.
Ford raced to put a battery-electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, into production and has pleased enough customers to prompt the company to expand production. General Motors is now launching an EV pickup and Stellantis’ Ram brand is planning to introduce one next year.
Musk, during a recent call with investors and analysts, indicated the Cybertruck is still undergoing tests and Tesla is still installing equipment needed for production of the Cybertruck at its massive plant ner Austin, Texas.
“Regarding the Cybertruck, we continue to build Alpha versions of the Cybertruck on our pilot line for testing purposes. It’s a great product, and we’re completing the installation of the volume production line at Giga Texas, and we’re anticipating having delivery event, a great delivery event probably in Q3,” Musk said.
Officials are quick to note that as with all new products, it will follow an S curve, so production starts out slow and then accelerates. So, the Cybertruck is no different. The demand for the Cybertruck is still very strong demand, Musk adds.
“It is my view, a fantastic product, a hall of famer. But as with all new products, it takes time to get the manufacturing line going. And this is really a very radical product. It’s not made in the way that other cars are made,” he said.